The CAF World Cup qualifiers have reached a thrilling climax after a dramatic round of matches that left Group C finely balanced. Nigeria’s hard-fought 2–1 win over Lesotho, South Africa’s frustrating draw with Zimbabwe, and Benin’s late win against Rwanda have combined to create one of the most unpredictable finales in recent African qualification history.
The Race Tightens After a Dramatic Matchday
In CAF’s qualification format, each group winner qualifies directly for the World Cup, while the top four second-placed teams from the nine groups advance to the CAF play-offs.
The play-off winner will then move on to the inter-confederation play-offs, where six nations from different continents will compete for the final two spots at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Nigeria’s Qualification Scenario
The Super Eagles have kept their World Cup hopes alive thanks to their recent 2–1 win over Lesotho, but they still face a difficult path ahead. Nigeria’s final game against Benin in Uyo will be decisive.
The team must win that match, and ideally by a margin of two or more goals to improve their goal difference. A narrow victory might not be enough if South Africa and Benin both maintain their form.
For Nigeria, it’s not only about winning their final game. They must also hope that South Africa drops points against Rwanda in their own fixture. A draw or defeat for Bafana Bafana would open the door for Nigeria to move into the top two positions.
If the Super Eagles finish second, they will have to rely on being one of the four best runners-up across all CAF qualifying groups to keep their World Cup dream alive through the play-off route.
Nigeria’s campaign received a major boost last month when South Africa were docked three points by FIFA for fielding a suspended player during their match against Lesotho in March. That decision reignited Nigeria’s hopes and brought Group C back to life.
South Africa’s Path to Qualification
South Africa’s goalless draw with Zimbabwe in Durban was a setback that could prove costly. The Bafana Bafana had an opportunity to close in on the top spot but failed to convert their dominance into goals. Now, their qualification chances depend heavily on the final round of fixtures.
To stand any chance of qualifying directly, South Africa must defeat Rwanda in their final match and aim for a convincing win to strengthen their goal difference.
Even then, their hopes may rest on the outcome of Nigeria’s match against Benin. A win for Benin could end South Africa’s chances altogether, while a Nigerian victory would put both nations in contention for the top two spots.
The earlier FIFA sanction that cost South Africa three points continues to have a major impact on their campaign.
Without that deduction, Bafana Bafana might already be on the verge of qualification. Now, they face a high-pressure finale that will define their path to North America 2026.
Benin’s Advantage at the Top
The Final Fixtures That Will Decide It All
All eyes will be on Tuesday’s decisive fixtures. Nigeria will host Benin in Uyo in what could be a winner-takes-all encounter, while South Africa will welcome Rwanda to Johannesburg. For Nigeria, anything less than victory will almost certainly mean elimination.
For South Africa, a win is essential, but even that might not be enough if results elsewhere go against them. Benin, meanwhile, will be focused on avoiding defeat to maintain their position at the top of the group.
The Broader Qualification Picture
The CAF qualification format for the 2026 World Cup allows only nine teams to qualify directly, one from each group. The next best four runners-up will compete in play-offs for a single inter-confederation playoff spot. That representative will face other confederations such as Asia, Oceania, and South America for one of the final two berths at the global tournament.
